A glimpse at the case against a rate rise by the Reserve Bank today
Peter Hannam
That March inflation result revved up the punditry (although it was the first upside CPI surprise in six months, as we noted here).
In the “don’t panic case” are economists such as Stephen Koukoulas, a former economic adviser to Labor PM Julia Gillard. “The economy is still weak and weakening,” he told me this week, pointing to March retail sales that are growing at a record-slow pace (outside the Covid pandemic).
He’s still confident that there will be “more likely than not a couple of rate cuts” this year, and no rate rise before that.
Koukoulas notes the RBA’s February forecasts (we get the updated predictions today) had public demand slowing from 4% growth in 2023 to an annual pace of 2.2% by June and 1.1% by December. (Guess we’ll see what the RBA thinks of next week’s federal budget and a possible spending spree in Queensland ahead of an October election that Labor seems on track to lose.)
Meanwhile, the ANZ/Roy Morgan’s weekly survey finds consumer sentiment still very weak. More noteworthy, perhaps, is the drop in inflation expectations – just what the RBA wants to see. Perhaps all this self-flagellation over a possible rate rise will do the job without a hike.
Key events
Luca Ittimani
Federal government to invest more than $50m into Canberra light rail and bike path
The federal government will spend more than $50m on Canberra’s light rail and bike paths, but won’t commit to extra spending on a new stadium for the national capital.
Finance minister Katy Gallagher said the federal government would give the ACT government $50m to help plan the extension of Canberra’s light rail project across Lake Burley Griffin to Woden in the south.
The federal government has not committed to evenly split the southern line’s costs with the ACT government, as it did for the belated city centre to lake line extension at a cost of more than $300m.
The government has also promised to deliver Canberra some of the benefits from its new $100m fund for active transport and bike paths, after ACT senator David Pocock slammed the commonwealth for giving Canberra “a disproportionately low amount of federal government investment” in the past.
Pocock yesterday said the recommendations from a Labor-led parliamentary inquiry into Canberra’s development were “too broad to be practically useful” and risked repeating the ACT missing out on $10bn in federal funding under the Morrison government.
The inquiry’s report, released yesterday, recommended building a new stadium in Canberra’s north, separate from a new convention centre in the CBD. Pocock has called for a new combined stadium and convention centre in the middle of the city since the 2022 election campaign.
The government has not committed to funding stadium upgrades but Gallagher foreshadowed “further investments for the ACT” in next week’s budget. She told reporters yesterday:
The ACT government’s lobbying pretty strongly on a whole range of fronts, not just [the] stadium but transport, national facilities.
Parachute drills resumed after soldier tragedy
Defence has resumed parachute training two months after the accidental death of a special forces soldier during a drill, AAP reports.
Lance corporal Jack Fitzgibbon, the son of former Labor defence minister Joel Fitzgibbon, died in March after he was injured in a parachuting incident at the Richmond RAAF base.
The Australian defence force paused all parachute training and operations after his death.
Special forces group commander Marcus Fogarty has said several types of parachute used by the military had been cleared after the accident, except the military javelin parachute that was used in the fatal jump.
The incident is being investigated by four separate inquiries including the NSW coroner and the inspector general of the ADF. Fogarty said:
We must let the investigations run their course and present their findings. Defence is co-operating fully with these investigations.
All military training involves inherent risk, however we do everything we can to mitigate this risk and keep our people safe, while delivering the required capability.
Detectives appealing for information following Coffs Harbour beach stabbing
Detectives are appealing for information after the alleged murder of a man as he exited the surf on a NSW beach last week.
Last Thursday morning, emergency services were called to Ocean Parade in Coffs Harbour after reports a man had been stabbed. The 21-year-old was treated by paramedics and taken to hospital, where he later died.
Detectives are now appealing to identify a man riding a bicycle in the area at the time of the incident.
They are also appealing for witnesses, or anyone with dashcam footage, in the vicinity of the Coffs Harbour Surf Club and the Orlando Street area at the time of the incident.
Adeshola Ore
Peak union body says Victorian budget ‘very difficult for casual workers’
The head of Victoria’s peak union body says it is disappointed the state budget has ended the Covid-era sick pay guarantee for casual workers.
The state budget, handed down today, says the trial scheme – which provided sick pay for casual and contract workers – will end next financial year.
Luke Hilakari, secretary of Victorian Trades Hall Council, says the trial ensured casual workers were not forced to decide between not being paid and going to work while unwell:
This is a very difficult budget for casual workers.
Juanita Pope, the chief executive of the Victorian council of social services, described the budget as “steady and modest” and welcomed the one-off $400 payment for public school students.
Adeshola Ore
Victorian Chamber of Commerce and Industry welcomes state budget
Victoria’s peak business body has backed the state budget, saying it will help reset the private sector’s relationship with the government.
The Allan government has handed down the state budget which delays key infrastructure projects as it aims to rein in increasing debt but also includes some cost-of-living relief measures.
Paul Guerra, the chief executive of the Victorian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, says he welcomes the fact the government has not imposed new taxes on businesses. He says it signals a reset in the relationship between the state government and the state’s private sector:
In all, a no-frills budget for business. But it’s one that we welcome.
Guerra says he hopes the budget’s cost-of-living measures like a one-off $400 payment will flow towards businesses.
Victorian state budget 2024 winners and losers
As details emerge around the Victorian budget, you can read this piece from our state reporters and this explainer below, outlining the winners and losers:
Josh Butler
Scott Morrison claims China ‘wants to rule the world’
The former prime minister Scott Morrison claims China “want to rule the world” and called Vladimir Putin “the most chilling person I’ve met” in a radio interview with Kyle and Jackie O today.
The recently retired MP is out on a PR blitz for his new book. Joining the radio shock jock duo this morning, Morrison referred to the incident where Australian authorities accused a Chinese jet of dropping flares dangerously close to a navy helicopter off the coast of South Korea:
[The Chinese government] want to be the dominant powerful force in our part of the world, invade Taiwan and take it over, and rule the world or their part of it with their regime which denies people liberty.
That’s something Australians will never accept.
He went on to talk about various world leaders. He called the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, “the most chilling person I’ve met, just a cold sort of guy”, Boris Johnson “the funnest guy I’ve met, a good bloke”, and said “I got on well with Donald Trump”.
“He understood the Australia-US relationship was important,” Morrison said of Trump, saying the former US president was “amazingly friendly toward me”. Morrison recounted a moment, when visiting Trump, that the then-president read out a poem written by Morrison’s distant aunt during a toast.
“He pays attention to detail in relationships,” Morrison said, adding that he didn’t believe a second Trump presidency would be the end of the Australia-US relationship.
Plugging his book, Morrison says Australian ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd, is hosting his book launch at the Australian embassy in the US next week. The book will be launched by former American secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, the former PM said.
Youth minister says deradicalisation programs for ‘majority’ of young people
The youth minister, Anne Aly, says de-radicalisation programs work for the “majority” of young people.
Speaking to ABC RN earlier this morning, Aly said deradicalisation programs work differently for different people and there is no “one size fits all” – it is depending on their individual needs.
Aly, who has worked as an expert in counter-extremism and deradicalisation, said the core approach has to be about “re-engaging” a young person with their families, friends and old hobbies, and away from online echo-chambers, for example.
It really is about navigating them through this period in their life, which for many will not go on to mean that they go on to commit a violent act, but navigating them through this period in their life and setting them on a path away from violence.
Aly said deradicalisation programs are always being reviewed, but said they work and she has seen this first-hand.
The fact is that where [these programs] don’t work, that’s unfortunately when we hear about them. Most of your listeners will go about their everyday [lives not knowing] these programs existed, and so we don’t know that they’re even there and we only ever see them where they don’t work. But for the vast majority, they do work.
Child protection workers say without additional staff ‘the system will collapse’
Child protection caseworkers will walk off the job and protest outside community services centres across NSW tomorrow.
The Public Service Association cited child safety concerns amid chronic staff shortages and exhaustion among the workforce.
Union general secretary Stewart Little said child protection workers are “concerned that by exposing vulnerable children to a broken system they may suffer even more harm”.
The union is calling for the premier, Chris Minns, to “immediately” onboard 500 additional child protection caseworkers to address an “attraction and retention crisis”, because otherwise “the system will collapse”. Little added:
To be fair the current NSW government didn’t create this mess but it’s up to them to fix it.
Child protection caseworkers are passionate about their work, and they want the people of NSW to know no urgent child protection responses will be impacted during their protest, and that skeleton staffing will be maintained at all times during this protest.
But they feel they have to do something as management just aren’t listening to their concerns.
Apparent human bones discovered at Toowoomba park
Queensland police have declared a crime scene after apparent human bones were discovered in a Toowoomba park yesterday.
Police were notified about the discovery at a park in Middle Ridge around 3pm yesterday afternoon by a member of the public.
Investigations are underway into the circumstances and identification of the bones, which are believed to be human. Anyone with information is urged to contact police.
