According to a Korea Gallup poll conducted between March 19-21 nationwide, 36 per cent of respondents said more PPP candidates should be elected to help Yoon carry out his presidency while 51 per cent said more opposition lawmakers should win to keep his administration in check in the April 10 parliamentary elections.
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The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at 95 per cent confidence.
Pollsters mostly agree that the main liberal opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) and the reformist Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) are expected to jointly seize the majority in the 300-seat National Assembly, extending their parliamentary control for another four years.
In what critics said was an apparent bid to help rally support among conservatives for the Yoon government, the conservative Chosun newspaper warned in a column on Tuesday that an opposition victory in the elections would turn Yoon into a “president in name only”.
As recently as earlier this month, the conservatives appeared to be staging a noticeable comeback, overtaking DPK in the opinion polls, buoyed by Yoon’s perceived fortitude in coping with the recent strike by trainee doctors.
However, this surge in popularity was short-lived as the protracted doctor dispute showed no signs of abating, exacerbating mounting voter fatigue already burdened by inflation and other economic hardships.
Moreover, the emergence of former justice minister Cho Kuk as RKP’s leader has effectively influenced the shifting mood of voters, successfully attracting those advocating for swift and extensive reforms.
RKP emerged as the second most popular party after the PPP in less than two weeks since its founding on March 3.
South Korean voters will cast two votes – one for a candidate in their regional constituency and another for a political party at the national level. RKP is not fielding candidates at the regional level. It will compete with its two main rivals’ spin-off parties at the national level and is expected to secure up to 15 seats out of 46 seats.
Since his election victory against opposition leader Lee Jae-myung with a razor-thin margin in May 2022, Yoon has cold-shouldered the opposition-dominated parliament even though its cooperation is essential to pass reforms in areas such as labour, national pension, and education.
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The political deadlock and administrative inertia have left Yoon with few domestic achievements to highlight to voters, resulting in his low approval ratings that have usually fluctuated from 30-40 per cent.
“His leadership style stemming from his friends or foe dichotomy nurtured through his long years of service as a prosecutor is restraining him from seeking a compromise with the opposition to resolve the political impasse”, Chosun University’s Jhee said.
Political science professor Yoon Sung-suk from Chonnam National University (CNU) said Yoon, who was elected president barely a year after he resigned as the prosecutor general, had disappointed many voters with his perceived lack of administrative skills.
Yoon was praised by conservative voters when he aligned Seoul more closely with the United States and Japan to cope with the nuclear-armed North, although this move has led to sour ties with Beijing and Moscow.
On the economic front, his administration was able to help restrain surging real estate prices due to higher interest rates amid money tightening.
But his apparent inaction in cracking down on alleged scandals surrounding his wife and his associates has dented his earlier image as a hard-nosed law enforcer who successfully campaigned on a slogan for a “fair and just society”, the CNU academic said.
The absence of his wife, Kim Keon-hee, who has disappeared from public view since November amid controversy over her alleged acceptance of a luxury handbag gift, is also seen as a move to improve his approval ratings.
Yoon’s detractors accuse Kim of allegedly wielding inappropriate influences over her husband and intervening in government appointments, allegations denied by the presidential office.
“He needs to pull out all the stops to improve people’s livelihood and curb inflation, the two issues that have caused many moderates to turn their backs on him”, said Choi Jin, head of the think tank Institute for Presidential Leadership.
Critics contend that South Korea is increasingly resembling a “republic of prosecutors” under Yoon as he has appointed several former prosecutors to influential positions.
Moreover, there are concerns that legal authorities are showing a lack of urgency in investigating allegations against Yoon’s associates and relatives, in contrast to swift actions taken against political adversaries for minor infractions.
Home Minister Lee Sang-min, a friend of Yoon, still holds his post despite strong calls for his dismissal following the Seoul Halloween crowd crush in 2022 that led to 159 deaths and 196 people injured.
Lee Jong-sup, a former defence minister who was appointed as ambassador to Australia, returned home last week briefly amid allegations that his appointment was a government bid to help him escape justice.
Lee is under investigation for allegedly covering up the death of a soldier in Yecheon, North Gyeongsang province last July during a controversial search and rescue mission. He was forced to resign as defence minister last October over the incident.
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Jhee said public opinions were most divided on Yoon’s diplomacy, with his efforts to mend fences with Japan earning praises among conservatives and his polarising foreign policy moves prompting criticisms among liberals.
His government had alienated many Koreans with a plan announced in March last year to use a Seoul-financed fund to compensate 15 Korean victims of Japanese wartime forced labour without Tokyo’s participation.
It also actively defended the release of contaminated water from Japan’s crippled Fukushima nuclear reactors in August last year despite widespread protests from South Korea’s fishing industry.
“He is credited with bolstering alliance with the United States and improving ties with Japan but this achievement was accompanied by mounting tensions with China and Russia and ruptured ties with North Korea”, Jhee said.
