US-Japan summit preview: Joe Biden and Fumio Kishida expected to raise defence, diplomacy as China looms

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But that page was unlikely to include a detailed road map any time soon as the allies struggle to reorganise entrenched defence systems built over decades.

A central problem, say analysts, is that the military structure in neighbouring South Korea is headed by a four-star general, while American army, naval, air force and marine forces in Japan are headed by three-star commanders.

Tokyo is pushing for Japan to play a more prominent role given the confusion and turf battles that could result were a conflict to erupt.

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The allies are also likely to discuss bolstered air-power cooperation, co-production of defence equipment and defence industrial policy coordination, said CSIS analyst Christopher Johnstone.

While economics are not expected to dominate bilateral discussions, the Biden administration’s decision, announced before the summit, to block Nippon Steel’s US$41 billion takeover bid for US Steel on national-security grounds has added friction.

“All deliverables are likely to have a security component, and they’ll underplay Nippon Steel,” said Jeremy Chan, a geopolitical analyst. “That’s such an ill-timed, tin-eared move.”

Emanuel, a Chicago native and former mayor, countered on Monday that too much was being made of the decision affecting Nippon given the two countries’ increasingly close bilateral relationship. “As we would say in Chicago, ‘you gotta chill’.”

Rahm Emanuel, the US ambassador to Japan, speaks to reporters outside his residence in Tokyo. Photo: AFP

The US-Japan summit will include one-on-one talks, a joint press conference, a state dinner, a speech before the US Congress and meetings between Kishida and Japanese companies in North Carolina. The trilateral leaders’ summit on Thursday will include talks and a three-way press conference.

“We also face the reality that China is increasing its presence in the region,” Kishida said in Tokyo before his arrival, adding that other Asian countries like the Philippines expected “Japan to increase its presence and provide an attractive alternative”.
The visit to Washington marks the latest high-profile global meeting for the Japanese prime minister. Last year, apart from meeting Biden twice in person, Kishida attended the Nato and European Union summits as well as travelled to war-wracked Ukraine.

PLA patrols South China Sea as US, Philippines, Japan and Australia hold drills

China’s foreign ministry on Monday said any defence cooperation should promote regional peace. “We oppose cobbling together exclusive groupings and stoking bloc confrontation in the region,” added ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning.

In taking a leading role in many regional “mini-lateral” arrangements, Tokyo has reversed a decades-long record of cautious defence and diplomatic policies.

Japan recently announced it would double its 2022 defence budget by 2027, add counterstrike capability, lift its cap on defence exports and stabilise historically prickly relations with Seoul.

“There’s been a strategic rethinking about how great the risks were in the region and how implicated Japan is in any contingency,” said Chan. “They can’t avoid being involved, so they might as well lean in.”

Biden and Kishida to announce ‘historic’ US-Japan agreement: envoy

Adding to Tokyo’s many hats, Aukus members signalled on Monday they would likely involve Japan in future projects, potentially including artificial intelligence, quantum technology, hypersonic capabilities and electronic warfare.

“My sense is that there is not yet a consensus among the three Aukus partners on what that project is,” Johnstone said.

Kishida hopes to further deepen security cooperation in such areas as defence equipment and technology. Japan, the US and Australia could agree to cooperate on military drones, Japanese media reported on Monday.

Bilateral progress could emerge in civilian and defence space projects, said CSIS senior fellow Kari Bingen, including the possible involvement of a Japanese astronaut in a future Artemis moon-landing mission. Bingen also expected greater collaboration in missile warning, hypersonic weapons, satellite architectures and data sharing.
The Philippines, meanwhile, is hoping to bolster support from Washington and Tokyo this week – as well as Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia and Malaysia further afield – as it encounters rising pressure from Beijing over contested waters in the South China Sea.
On March 5, the Chinese Coast Guard and Chinese Maritime Militia collided with the Philippine Coast Guard. And on March 23, Chinese water cannons damaged a Philippine supply vessel and injured some of crew.

“The leaders of all three countries are now seeking to quickly institutionalise a new coordinated approach to regional security,” said Haroro Ingram, Philippines country representative with the non-profit United States Institute of Peace. “But the Marcos administration correctly recognises that it cannot solely rely on its two closest friends to deal with the challenges of the next decade.”

In recent years, Tokyo have provided defence aid, patrol boats and radar systems to the Philippines as the two sides negotiate an agreement to train troops in each other’s country.

On Sunday, in a clear message ahead of the summit, the three countries conducted joint naval exercises in the disputed South China Sea.

This week the US and Tokyo are also expected to offer more economic aid to Manila, potentially involving semiconductor and other hi-tech manufacturing, green energy and mining.

How will China react as Biden readies for ‘Camp David’ with Kishida, Marcos?

But officials and analysts acknowledged many of the strings that make up the latticework were politically vulnerable.

“Springtime may see a blossoming US-Japan alliance,” said Mireya Solis, a Brookings Institution senior fellow. “But cooperative endeavours will be tested by the winds of political change come fall.”

Emanuel portrayed the recent strategic moves as a necessary geopolitical investment.

“Roots are being put down,” he said. “But it’s early enough that unless you’re building on it constantly, it will atrophy. And we all know that.”

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