It is not often Manchester United and Tottenham fans need to support Manchester City and Arsenal, but this is the situation we are currently in.
The introduction of “European Performance Slots” into the new, expanded Champions League format means two leagues can earn an extra slot in next season’s competition.
As it stands, Italy are all but guaranteed to take one of them, while Germany and England are fighting it out for the second.
Here’s what the English clubs have to do in Europe to ensure the Premier League gets five Champions League spots next season.
How the European Performance Slots work
The two European Performance Slots given to leagues will be decided on this season’s Uefa coefficient score.
Each nation’s coefficient score is decided by dividing the amount of “points” they have by the number of clubs from that country entered in European competition in the respective season.
These points are accrued through results and entry into different stages of the Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League.
In each competition, any win is worth two points, while a draw earns one.
And in the Champions League, participation in the group stage is worth four points per club, with any side that makes it into the last 16 then earnings five points each.
Qualification for the quarter-finals, semi-finals and final are then worth one point per club.
In the Europa League, winning your group earns four points, while runners-up get two. Qualification for the knockout stages are worth one point per round.
And in the Europa Conference League, group stage winners get one point each, while runners-up and qualification for each knockout round are worth one.
England have the highest Uefa coefficient score over the past five seasons by some distance, with their 103.678 over 15 points ahead of Spain’s 88.489.
But as the European Performance Slots are decided on the previous season alone, the Premier League is still trailing behind the Bundesliga as it stands.
Current Uefa coefficient standings 2023-24
Correct as of 17 April 2024
- 1) Italy – 18.428 (4/7 clubs remaining)
- 2) Germany – 17.214 (3/7 clubs remaining)
- 3) England – 16.750 (5/8 clubs remaining)
- 4) France – 15.250 (3/6 clubs remaining)
- 5) Spain – 15.062 (3/8 clubs remaining)
- 6) Belgium – 13.600 (1/5 clubs remaining)
What English clubs need to do to secure a fifth Champions League spot
As qualification for the final rounds of each competition is only worth one point for each club, as well as a win and draw earning two and one point respectively regardless of competition, every club left in European competition is as important as the other.
Arsenal and Manchester City are still in the Champions League, Liverpool and West Ham in the Europa League and Aston Villa in the Conference League.
And what’s relevant for all these clubs is how they perform compared to the three Bundesliga clubs still left in Europe – Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League, and Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League.
Dortmund booked their semi-final spot by beating Atletico Madrid, while Leverkusen and Bayern face West Ham and Arsenal later this week.
These are crucial ties in the race for a fifth spot – if both German sides win, they will both extend their lead and mean that both leagues have just three clubs left in Europe.
Arsenal are currently 2-2 with Bayern, while Bayer have a 2-0 lead over West Ham.
It would also be beneficial if Liverpool could overturn their 3-0 deficit against Atalanta, but this seems highly unlikely.
Arsenal or City winning the Champions League or Aston Villa winning the Conference League are the most likely ways of ensuring England get a fifth UCL spot next season.
If an English club won both of those tournaments, then the deficit with Germany would be almost definitely overturned, even if favourites Bayer Leverkusen win the Europa League.
